The Future of High Quality Low Cost Housing in Ireland

Part 3 of a 3-part series by Tomas O’Riain

Modular housing is one of the most viable emergency tools for Ireland’s housing crisis. It’s already being deployed in Ireland for emergency accommodation and transitional housing, and it works internationally in emergencies because it’s fast, off-site manufactured, and can be assembled quickly on-site—often in weeks rather than months or years.

Modular Housing is the Future

Modular housing is the future of permanent housing and not the shoddy temporary housing it is now being used for. Our old, slow, labour intensive, over expensive way of housing is obsolete. There’s a whole new industry waiting for us to develop here in Ireland not just as a temporary solution to our present housing crisis but as a permanent solution with the added benefit of creating a huge export market for quality modular housing.

Why Modular Housing Works in Emergencies

How Ireland Is Already Using or Misusing It

What is temporary becomes an obsolete liability in a relatively short space of time and is basically a financial write off with no return in investment right from the start. Irelands temporary approach is only causing problems for the future and shows a deficit of thinking and planning suggesting a deficit of intelligence.

DCEDIY Emergency Accommodations

• Steel-built modular houses for refugees, asylum seekers, which provide no return in investment but Irelands own most in need are neglected and ignored. Homes for rent paying Irish would start providing an immediate return.
• Volumetric 3D Modular Units provide temporary accommodation for families of all sizes. Temporary accommodation only pushes the housing problem down the road.

Limerick SMART Modular Housing

• SMART = Short-term Modular Affordable Rental Transition
• Up to 1,000 units depending on demand
• Short-term measure on short-life sites create long term problems instead of building permanent housing.

International Examples That Work

Why Modular Isn’t the Default Yet (Systemic Barriers)

The Bottom Line

Yes, emergency measures can be used—modular housing was in the past inherently an emergency solution. However modern modular housing is as good as any permanent housing solutions. Ireland is already using it for refugees and asylum seekers but not for its own people. The problem is that scale is based on temporary rather than permanent housing and is too small and not well thought out relative to the crisis. Traditional “Builder” resistance rules the spineless government.

Requirements for it to work at scale:

• Fast-track planning for emergency modular (special exemptions)
• Central coordination to deploy hundreds/thousands of units at once
• Pre-approved land banks with services ready
• Standardized designs to reduce costs
• Public-private partnerships to manufacture at industrial scale

The technical solution exists—the barrier is government ineptitude and cowardice. What is required is systemic coordination and speed of deployment.

How Ireland Could Deploy 5,000 Units in 12 Months

Ireland’s Emergency Modular Housing Plan: 5,000 Units in 12 Months

Based on Ireland’s Ukrainian Rapid Build Modular Homes Programme (500 units, 8 sites, 12 months.) and the Department of Housing’s Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) roadmap (1,800 social homes in 2 years, cutting delivery from 18 to 12 months), here’s a practical emergency deployment plan.

PHASE 1: PREPARATION (Months 1-2)

Week 1-2: Emergency Legislation

Week 3-4: Site Selection & Preparation

Week 5-8: Procurement & Manufacturing

PHASE 2: MANUFACTURING & SITE WORK (Months 3-6)

Month 3: Manufacturing Ramp-Up

Month 3-4: Site Infrastructure

Month 5-6: First Installations

PHASE 3: MASS DEPLOYMENT (Months 7-10)

Month 7-8: Peak Production

Month 9-10: Final Wave

PHASE 4: HANDOVER & OCCUPANCY (Months 11-12)

Month 11: Final Inspections

Month 12: Occupancy

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS

1. Emergency Powers

2. Financing Model

3. Manufacturing Capacity

4. Site Selection Criteria

TIMELINE SUMMARY

COMPARISON TO UKRAINIAN PILOT

RISK MITIGATION

Risk 1: Cost Overruns

• Problem: Ukrainian pilot costs rose 120% (€100m → €285m)
• Mitigation: Fixed-price contracts, 3-source manufacturing, €100m MMC loan fund

Risk 2: Site Delays

• Problem: 30 sites × 143 units = complex logistics
• Mitigation: Pre-selected council land with services ready

Risk 3: Community Opposition

• Problem: NIMBY objections to temporary housing
• Mitigation: Emergency designation, 30-day planning limit, 45m² exemption

Risk 4: Quality Issues

• Problem: Modular units sometimes criticized as “cheap”.
• Mitigation: NSAI certification, A-rated, timber-free, turnkey ready

LONG-TERM CONVERSION

These 5,000 units can become permanent housing:

CONCLUSION

This plan is technically feasible because:

• Modular manufacturing capacity exists (420 units/month)
• Ireland has already deployed 500–700 units in 12 months for Ukrainians
• 35 sites are pre-identified by Housing Dept
• MMC fund is €100 million for loan alleviation
• Delivery time cut from 18 to 12 months using modular

The barrier is not technical—it’s lack of governmental willingness, central coordination and emergency powers. If the government declares this an emergency crisis and uses the Ukrainian pilot as a model, 5,000 modular units in 12 months is readily achievable.

Cost Effectiveness

Modular Homes vs Permanent Social Housing: Construction Cost Comparison

Modular homes are typically 20–40% cheaper than traditional construction when built at scale, with costs that are clear and fixed upfront, avoiding surprise overruns common with conventional builds. In Canada, construction costs can be up to 25% lower than stick-built social housing.

Cost Comparison: Modular vs Traditional Social Housing

Real-World Example Irish Modular Pilot (Ukrainian Programme)

• 500 units: €100 million → €200,000 per unit
• Extrapolated to 700 units: €285 million → €407,000 per unit (120% cost increase)
• Aontú criticism: Costs rose dramatically because of the lack of oversight. Aontú rightfully described what was done as “bonfire of taxpayer money”. That’s what happens when the OPW are involved.

Canadian Social Housing (BC)

• 2,000 temporary modular units: $290 million → $145,000 per unit ($145k CAD ≈ €100k EUR)
• Saving: 25% lower than stick-built social housing’s $200/sq ft minimum
• 4,900 permanent apartments planned: $1.9 billion (likely includes modular)

UK Modular Housing

• Modular homes: €180,000–€250,000 per unit (emergency deployment)
• Traditional social housing: €300,000–€450,000 per unit (typical)

Why Modular Is Cheaper

The Irish Reality: Why Modular Costs Are Higher

Despite the 20–40% savings theory, Ireland’s modular costs have been much higher than expected:

Why Irish modular costs are paradoxical

1. Small-scale pilot: 500 units not enough to achieve factory efficiency
2. No planning, stupid OPW emergency pricing: Expedited timeline = higher costs
3. Logistics costs: Importing from Poland/Turkey adds transport costs
4. Site preparation costs: Not included in modular unit price (foundations, utilities, roads)
5. Regulatory costs: Irish building codes, fire safety, thermal standards still apply but that’s no excuse for delays or cost overruns with proper planning and oversight. Imagine someone of Michael O’Leary’s capabilities managing the project.

When Modular Is Actually Cheaper

Modular achieves 20–40% savings when:

Potential Hidden Costs to Consider

Modular homes may have additional costs not included in the base price but all of those costs also apply to traditional building methods. Scale of work can considerably reduce those costs. Most of those costs are grossly overstated and belong to the old inefficient way of doing things.

Total Project Cost Comparison

Modular (Total Project)

Traditional Social Housing (Total Project)

Savings

• Modular total: €212,000–€320,000
• Traditional total: €340,000–€530,000
• Savings: 30–40% cheaper (when factory efficiency achieved)

Key Takeaways

1. 20–40% cheaper in theory: Modular is 20–40% cheaper than traditional builds when built at scale
2. 25% lower in Canada: 25% lower than stick-built social housing minimum costs
3. Fixed pricing: Costs are clear and fixed upfront, avoiding surprise overruns
4. Irish reality: Ukrainian pilot showed 120% cost increase (€100m → €285m), making it not cheaperat small scale
5. Hidden costs: Site prep, foundations, transport, installation add €32,000–€90,000 per unit
6. Scale matters: At 5,000+ units, factory efficiency makes modular 30–40% cheaper

Modular homes are cheaper when deployed at scale and with proper planning, management, scale, oversight together with standardized designs and pre-approved sites. They can, without scale, foresight and proper planning be more expensive in small emergency pilots due to emergency pricing, logistics, and permitting costs.

The Future of Home Building

Our traditional ways of building are inefficient, labour intensive, slow to complete and ridiculously expensive. Therefore, our traditional ways of building are obsolete and the sooner we realize that the better. In fact, we should be creating a whole new industry of building modular housing not just to fulfil Irish needs but to create a lucrative export industry. Poland provides an excellent model for this. If they can do it, we can do it. It just requires getting our heads out of our collective asses. Let’s go for it.